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Article Specs Article ID: 14190 VoxAcct: 295371 Section: words Age Group: Adult Days Up: 3 Times Read: 381 RSS Views: 3,223

2012: The Logical Approach

Author: Morgan St. Knight [a WitchVox Sponsor]
Posted: January 9th. 2011
Times Viewed: 381

Most of my life Ive had to struggle not to blurt out the first thing that comes to my mind when Im confronted with a theory or belief that I disagree with. I suppose it has something to do with having Oya-Yansa as one of my tutelary Deities. While Shes not quite as hot-tempered as, say, Oggun or Aganyu, She doesnt sit still when confronted with the unacceptable. No, She calls up Her whirlwinds and cleans house in short order.

So when I hear various theories about whats going to happen in 2012, I have to try really, really hard not to just lose it and call those whirlwinds down. I truly do respect other peoples theories and opinions. I loathe people who try to shout down others with opposing viewpoints, as if mere volume and preventing other people from speaking suffice as a reasonable counterpoint. Thats much-too-much of a holdover from the patriarchal Might makes right viewpoint. Only right makes right.

Which brings me to 2012. True, were talking about theories here, so its a little difficult to speak definitively about what is right (translate: correct) . But can we at least stay close to the ballpark with some of this? Im talking about the ballpark that includes feasible outcomes, and most importantly, accurate information.

There is absolutely no reason science and religion, including Wicca and Paganism, cant coexist and mutually benefit each other. But we, as Pagans, have to be willing to look at what science has to offer, and to accept its conclusions. Its fine to dream

of better, idyllic days ahead (or doomsdays, if thats your bent) , but we wont serve those interests and bring them about by ignoring reality. Certainly, we want to be respected and treated as equals; one of the best ways to do this is to prove we are rational (which underscores that our religious views, while different, are rational) rather than gullible (which indicates that well believe anything, so why should anyone take our religious beliefs seriously) .

Put another way, shouldnt we be setting a better example than those who follow religious teachings slavishly just because theyre written down somewhere? We know a lot of people who say Pagans are in the wrong because certain books written a long, long time ago state that people who dont follow a certain God are evil. How can we complain about their adherence to those books if we just jump on the bandwagon when the latest fad, like the 2012 doomsday scenarios, starts popping up on the bookshelves, and we swallow whatever these authors tell us without actually looking at the facts?

I suppose Im a little intense about this because the whole 2012 thing keeps dropping into my lap like a flaming meteor from hell. A little background: I do research in the field of geophysics aside from my regular job as a journalist. Ive been invited to speak at conferences about earthquake precursors alongside scientists from respected universities and institutions like NASA, so I have some perspective when it comes to large-scale disasters (the earthquakes, not the conferences) . When people find that out, I get drawn into some interesting conversations. 2012 is creeping into them more frequently.

Oh, you study earthquakes. Youre going to be a lot busier in the next couple of years! Then it begins: they either fix me with a sly gaze that indicates theyre going to let me in on some grand conspiracy, or with the glaring look that tells me theyre going to pronounce some horrible but undeniable truth. The latter folk would have made wonderful desert prophets a couple thousand years ago. Theyve practiced that glaring look quite a bit.

Either way, the revelation is the same. 2012 IS COMING!!

Yes. Yes it is. Well, it had to arrive sometime, our Western calendar being linear and all. Thats a very important point well get back to in a bit.

A recent conversation went something like this (its been condensed; none of you has done anything to me [yet], so I wont inflict the actual 30-odd minutes of purgatory I went through on you.)

2012 fan: So you know whats going to happen on December 21, 2012, right?

Me: Saturnalia

2012 fan: What?

Me: (remembering they dont know Im a Witch) Oh nothing. Old family tradition, thats all.

2012 fan: No, no. Dramatic pause. This Earth is going to be aligned with the center of the galaxy!

Me: (blank stare for several seconds) Okay...

2012 fan (smugly) Well, its the first time in 260 million years that the Earth will be aligned with the center of the galaxy. Therell be huge earthquakes and floods. It might be so bad that the Earths poles will shift, and that will destroy the Earth. The Mayan calendar ends in 2012, and they were the best astronomers in the ancient world!

Me: (finishing my festive drink and very glad I tossed out the paper umbrella, because I really didnt need a sharp pointy thing in easy reach just then) Youre absolutely wrong. About all of it.

2012 fan: (not believing I dare to contradict such bold facts) NO, it isnt wrong! For YOUR information I just finished reading this book--

Me: (going against my better nature and interrupting) Which was either a pile of crap, or something you clearly didnt understand.

Realizing I had insulted this person, I forced myself to moderate my tone and explained what was wrong about those theories.

We started with the Earth is going to be aligned with the center of the galaxy for the first time in 260 million years scenario. Actually, the Earth WILL be aligned with the center of the galaxy on December 21, 2012. Its also aligned with the center of the galaxy right now. It was aligned 250 years ago, and will be aligned in the year 2525 (if man is still alive, and woman can survive. Bonus points to anyone who gets the reference) .

Why? Because were talking about the center of the galaxy. Were always aligned with it; thats what makes it the center. Otherwise it would just be a random point.

That 260 million year thing? Well, its based on a fact, although its not a fact that made any sense in this context.

Our entire solar system, moving more or less as an ensemble, rests in one of the arms of the Milky Way Galaxy, which is a spiral galaxy. It takes about 250 million years for the Sun to make one complete revolution around the central portion of the galaxy. (I wont grudge the 2012 fan for adding 10 million years; when youre talking about this kind of time frame, who needs to nickel-and-dime it?) But this proves my earlier point: since the Sun is revolving around the center of the galaxy, it is always aligned with the galactic center, and so are we.

Now on to that thing about the Earths poles shifting in 2012. Guess what? Theyve been shifting for years, yet I notice that the planet is still here.

First, lets distinguish between the geographic North and South pole, which are physical places, and the Earths magnetic North and South poles. The magnetic poles are not in the same location as the geographic poles, nor are the magnetic poles fixed. They drift around, although youd be hard-pressed to observe the change for yourself unless you have a lot of free time on your hands. A paper that came out a couple of years ago (Stoner et al) noted that the North Pole has shifted some 700 miles from where it was in the early 20th century, and may end up being centered somewhere in Siberia within decades. This isnt speculation; its science based on observation of where the pole is each year.

Bottom line: a compass will give you a general indication of where North is, as opposed to West, but its not as precise as you might think.

The mechanism for polar drift hasnt been pinned down yet, but it seems to be linked to the way in which the Earths magnetic field is generated. As someone who works in geophysics, I can tell you theres some debate about it. Not everyone is willing to accept the simple theory that its just from the rotation of the planets molten metal core.

For this discussion, what we need to focus on is the simple point that we have magnetic poles. The fact is, the poles not only drift around, they switch position. The North Pole can become the South Pole, and vice versa. But its not Armageddon. This has happened several times over the Earths history.

How do we know this? By drilling deep into the seabed, into areas formed by molten rock extruded from deep within the Earth and cooling down, and examining the magnetic orientation of various layers deposited over time. At high temperatures, its virtually impossible to get anything to align with a magnetic field, even iron, which is highly susceptible to magnetism. As the rock cools, at a certain point iron and other susceptible elements suddenly align with the prevailing magnetic field orientation of the planet. This alignment is literally frozen into the rock as it solidifies, providing a record of how the Earths magnetic field was aligned at the time.

Core samples which contain multiple layers from the seabed allow us to track changes in the Earths magnetic field orientation over hundreds of thousands of years. The alignments show the startling reality that the poles have switched position multiple times, the last time being about 780, 000 years ago. This is far less than 250 million years, so this has NOTHING to do with returning roughly to our location one galactic revolution ago. The reversals of the North and South poles have not destroyed the planet thus far, and likely wont when it happens again.

There has been some talk that 2012 will mark the peak of the solar cycle, and that seems to be of some significance to 2012 fans. This may or may not happen; our estimates of when the solar cycle peaks are based on extremely limited records (only a few hundred years) of sunspot cycles, which gives us the ballpark figure that solar activity reaches a high point every 11 years or so. But this is an estimate only. To assume the Sun has followed this rigid schedule for the past five billion years of its existence is to assume a lot, so we shouldnt be too confident about predicting what it might do, and when.

Heres what we know: in the time weve made observations of the number of sunspots (which is how we track peaks and ebbs in solar activity) the Sun seems to exhibit high sunspot activity every 9-12 years. This happens because the Suns magnetic poles shift within that time; what is now the Suns northern magnetic pole was the southern pole just a few years ago. Sound familiar? But note, the Suns polar shifts are much more frequent than the Earths because its magnetic fields are much more intense, and are generated through different processes than our planets. This is not a one-time thing: it happens roughly every decade. When you hear the Suns poles are going to reverse, instead of taking it as evidence of a cataclysm, you should be happy. Its SUPPOSED to happen.

Sunspots appear at latitudes of 25-30 degrees on the Sun at the beginning of a new cycle, but as the poles get closer to flipping the spots begin forming more rapidly, and forming closer and closer to the Suns equator.

Heres the catch. The last three solar cycles exhibited DOUBLE peaks; sunspot activity came to a climax roughly at the appointed time, but then a second, slightly weaker climax came a couple of years later in each of those cycles. In this new cycle, we are behind schedule a bit; solar maximum may not occur for up to 3 more years.

Or, it may not come at all. Between 1645 and 1715 the so-called Maunder minimum occurred, during which sunspots were extremely rare. Because we had only visual observations to go by back then, and lacked the complex instruments we now have to measure such events as X-ray, proton and electron surges that signal high solar activity, there is no way to know just how quiet the Sun really was. But it shows we cant assume that 2012 will bring solar maximum right on cue.

For those who think that solar maximum will mean massive power grid failures (and hence the demise of modern society) , take a deep breath and relax. Its true that there have been ISOLATED grid failures in past cycles. The most notable in recent history, but by no means the only one, occurred when a large portion of Quebec was knocked offline by solar activity in 1989. It was not all of Quebec, and the outage only lasted for roughly 9 hours. So its really overstating things to imply whole countries will be thrown into the dark during the upcoming solar maximum, much less the entire world. The most recent cycle, with peaks in 2000 and 2002, caused no major outages despite having some of the most intense solar activity on record.

Heres how it works, and why it only works in limited areas: intense bursts of solar activity, including expulsions of huge clouds of electrified gas and energetic particles from the Sun towards Earth (coronal mass ejections) can induce bursts of electrical activity in the ionosphere, especially close to upper atmospheric systems known as the auroral electrojets (located near the poles, and closely involved with generating the Northern and Southern lights) . The bursts of electricity in the ionosphere generate reciprocal currents in the ground, known as geomagnetic induced currents (GICs) . These currents can affect unprotected or deteriorated equipment such as aging transformers, and can also generate direct currents along power lines (a very bad thing, since power lines operate on alternating current. They do not play nicely together) . This can cause overloads which knock out power in specific regions. The Quebec outage mentioned above was traced to a transformer than was overcharged GICs and blew out.

Understand that while these currents can affect sensitive equipment, it does NOT mean bolts of lighting will start shooting from the ground randomly because of solar activity. Thats Hollywood.

Power companies are very aware of the dangers of domino-effect outages, in part because of experiences with the effects of solar activity. Protocols are in place to isolate the outages so they dont affect surrounding areas. Even if a whole region of a country is thrown into the dark, as happened in the Northeast a few years ago (not from solar activity, by the way) , it wont last for more than a couple of days at most, and while it will affect air travel and some financial systems, it will by no means ruin the entire country. Power goes out for much longer periods for fairly large areas during blizzards and hurricanes because poles and lines are knocked down. Civilization remains.

Some 2012 fans also predict widespread chaos through satellite failures caused by solar activity. Heres how that happens, and why you shouldnt worry too much.

The satellites we rely on for communications, navigation, and other important areas orbit within the protective bubble created by the planets magnetic field (Its a very distorted bubble to be sure, but very effective nonetheless) . The magnetic field deflects the vast majority of highly energetic particles streaming from the Sun. But, as noted above, the Sun sometimes throws out huge clouds of highly electrified gas (plasma) and high-speed protons and electrons. When that happens, if the Earth is in the direct path of the cloud, the impact can compress the planets magnetic field, essentially pushing it below the satellites orbital positions and leaving them exposed.

However, this only happens for the portion of the Earth that is facing the Sun when the cloud arrives. That could be a period of minutes to days, depending on which part of the Sun expelled the cloud. Since most of the satellites that regulate our communications and navigation are geosynchronous (they remain in one fixed position over the Earth, and follow its rotation to maintain that position) , the key question is, which areas will even experience these effects? Theres a roughly 50-percent chance (more or less, depending on the time of year and thus the number of daylight hours in your area) that you and the satellites you rely on will be on the night-side of the planet when the cloud strikes, so they will be protected from the compression effect.

Heres what happens to those unfortunate satellites facing the Sun when the cloud hits. If the magnetic field compresses and leaves them exposed, the plasma cloud can cause a static charge to build up on one side of the satellite; if enough charge develops, there could be an arc of electricity from one part of the satellite to another, which could potentially damage the satellites equipment. This is, in effect, a very small-scale lightning strike (or maybe a better illustration is the shock you generate when you scuff your feet on the carpet during the winter and touch someone else as a practical joke) .

Satellite makers are well aware of these dangers, and have taken steps to bolster insulation on most of the newer satellites. Additionally, they can reroute key networks fairly quickly if a satellite fails, so disruptions can be kept to a minimum.

I know some 2012 theorists say the largest extinction on the planet occurred 250 million years ago (theres that number again!) This was the Permian-Triassic extinction. However, there are some important clarifications. First, the actual date was not 250 million years ago, but closer to 251 million years ago. If mass extinctions were really based on the Earth being at a certain point in its 250-million-year rotation around the galactic core, then the extinction predicted for 2012 should actually have occurred one million years ago. Were not talking a grace period of a couple of centuries here. You cant elide over a million-year gap just to make the doomsday prophecies seem more realistic.

The next point is, while the P-T extinction was the largest, it was by no means the only mass extinction on the planet. There were several others, some before, some after the P-T extinction, including the one most of us think of when talking about mass extinction: the one that killed off the dinosaurs. This was not the P-T extinction, but the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction that happened roughly 70 million years ago. Periods between mass extinctions range from about 50 to more than 130 million years, with no discernible pattern that would let you predict the next one.

Lets wrap up by talking about the people who generated the calendar thats given rise to the whole 2012 phenomena. The long-count calendar invented by the Mayans involves cycles of 5, 128 years. This calendar supposedly ends in on December 21, 2012. However, the first thing to note is that the Mayans had a cyclic view of time, unlike our linear view of time. The end of a cycle doesnt mean the end of existence; it merely means a new cycle will begin. Will the next cycle be better or worse? Im not Mayan, but Ill risk a prediction: December 22, 2012 will be much like December 21 for most of the world, except we Pagans will have less stress because the Yule shopping frenzy will be over.

The Mayans believed we are in the fourth age or cycle; this means three other cycles must have preceded ours. If they were also 5, 128 years long, it would mean the world as we know it is less than 21, 000 years old. Shouldnt we have noticed if there were mass extinctions 10, 000 and 5, 000 years ago when some of those other ages ended? Its ridiculous to point to a mass extinction 251 million years ago and a galactic rotation of 250 million years as evidence of a grand pattern, then try to work in a calendar system that accounts for less than 1/10, 000 of that time frame, (lets toss in an unrealistic expectation that the Sun will have a perfectly predictable solar cycle for once) , and hope that it ushers in great cosmic shifts.

I speak as both a Pagan and a scientist when I urge you to read up on these things and not just take broad, sweeping statements in 2012 books as fact. What Ive learned through science has not only supported, but also bolstered my belief in magic and the truly awesome power of Nature. I invite you to hop on THIS bandwagon; theres plenty of room for all.

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Footnotes:
Stoner, J.S.; Francus, P.; Bradley, R.S.; Partridge, W.; Abbott, M.A.; Retelle, M.J.; Lamoreaux, S.; Channell, J.E.; Abrupt Shifts in the Position of the North Magnetic Pole from Artic Lake Sediments: Relationship to Archeomagnetic Jerks Presented at the 2005 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union

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